hinrichfoundation 1h ago

“As tumultuous as the first two years have been, the next two years could be even more tumultuous from a foreign policy perspective,” says Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors. Trump’s second term is testing how governments, companies, and allies navigate a world in which US foreign policy, trade, technology, and domestic politics are increasingly difficult to separate. Steven Okun described Trump as constrained at home but largely unchecked abroad, giving him greater room to shape foreign policy and making the next two years potentially more tumultuous. This volatility is unfolding in a world he described as having three overlapping orders: unipolar in the continuing reach of US power, bipolar in the US-China contest over technology, rare earths, and strategic leverage, and multipolar as countries cooperate outside both Washington and Beijing. US-China relations are now in strategic stalemate rather than a trade truce, shaped by Beijing’s Made in China 2025 plan, its dual circulation strategy, and push to control advanced manufacturing, as well as Washington’s use of tariffs, export controls, and technology restrictions. With tariffs likely to remain central to Trump’s economic statecraft, many countries are quietly seeking alternatives through middle-power cooperation and trade agreements. The 2026 US midterms could strengthen Democratic prospects in the House as Trump’s popularity declines, but concerns over election interference and shifting voter coalitions could still shape the outcome. Governments and companies must also prepare for gray rhinos already in view: energy insecurity exposed by the Iran War and Hormuz blockade, a continuing US-China trade war, a more fractured global order, worsening climate pressures, and artificial intelligence disruption that could reshape politics, inequality, infrastructure demand, and access to technology.