Towards coupled data-driven Earth system prediction

Towards coupled data-driven Earth system prediction

Recent advances in machine learning have enabled data driven models for weather and climate prediction that are approaching the skill of traditional numerical weather prediction systems. These approaches, ranging from hybrid physics and machine learning methods to full model emulation, offer dramatic reductions in computational cost and open the door to new experiments, large ensembles, and interactive workflows. In this talk, the speakers present recent work within NCAR’s CREDIT, Community Research Earth Digital Twin, framework, focusing on stable decadal scale autoregressive prediction. They introduce CAMulator, a data driven emulator of the NSF NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, CAM, and examine its architecture, training strategy, and long horizon behavior. Results show that the model reproduces key atmospheric dynamics while maintaining stability over extended forecasts. They then explore a pathway toward coupled data driven Earth system modeling by coupling CAMulator with a process based ocean model. This required building a robust interface between legacy Fortran infrastructure and modern Python based machine learning systems. They discuss both the technical challenges and the solutions that enabled this hybrid coupling, and present early results demonstrating the potential of such systems to accelerate Earth system prediction and experimentation. AI for Good is identifying innovative AI applications, building skills and standards, and advancing partnerships to solve global challenges. AI for Good is organized by ITU in partnership with over 50 UN partners and co-convened with the Government of Switzerland. Join the Neural Network! 👉https://aiforgood.itu.int/neural-network/ The AI for Good networking community platform powered by AI. Designed to help users build connections with innovators and experts, link innovative ideas with social impact opportunities, and bring the community together to solve global challenges using AI. 🔴 Watch the latest #AIforGood videos! https://www.youtube.com/c/AIforGood/videos 📩 Stay updated and join our weekly AI for Good newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gI2kJ5 🗞Check out the latest AI for Good news: https://aiforgood.itu.int/newsroom/ 📱Explore the AI for Good blog: https://aiforgood.itu.int/ai-for-good-blog/ 🌎 Connect on our social media: Website: https://aiforgood.itu.int/ X: https://twitter.com/AIforGood LinkedIn Page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/26511907 LinkedIn Group: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8567748 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/aiforgood Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AIforGood Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the panelists and do not reflect the official policy of the ITU.