ECFR 2d ago

The future of Europe may be shaping up to look very different—and far more unpredictable. As France stands on the brink of a potentially historic election, experts reveal the high stakes and hidden risks that could reshape European unity, security, and global influence. If a far-right candidate like Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen takes power, what does that mean for NATO, European integration, and the continent’s strategic autonomy? In this four episode series, Making Defence European Again, four of our ECFR fellows discuss analysis and advice on the future of European security. In this episode, we dive deep into France's evolving political landscape amid rising nationalism, dissect the long-term implications for EU cohesion, and explore what Europe's neighbors should be preparing for. You'll learn how internal struggles within France could fragment alliances, weaken shared defenses, and upend the delicate balance of trust and cooperation—raising urgent questions for every European nation. We break down: ▶︎The shifting sands of France’s presidential race and how elections historically alter European stability ▶︎Why a far-right government might pursue a more unilateral foreign policy and “renegotiate” its role in NATO and EU defense ▶︎How French electoral mechanics and public sentiment set the stage for a potential radical left-right showdown ▶︎The implications of France’s domestic economic strains on its foreign policy priorities ▶︎What European allies can do—early engagement, diplomacy, or containment—to mitigate unpredictable outcomes This episode is essential watching if you’re concerned about the future of European security, the stability of NATO, or whether nationalism will tip the continent into new uncertainties. Whether you're a policy enthusiast, a security analyst, or simply curious about how France’s political shifts could echo across borders—you’ll find critical insights and a sobering look at what’s at stake. With expert insights from fellows tracking European politics, and strategic analysis from insiders who understand France’s complex journey—this conversation illuminates the risks, opportunities, and critical decisions that could shape Europe’s next chapter. Are we heading toward a more divided and isolated Europe? Or can early diplomacy and strategic foresight turn the tide? Tune in to find out—because what happens in France could determine Europe's future for decades to come. 2026 © A production from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) This work was supported in part by a grant from the Open Society Foundations. ☛ Resources & Links: https://ecfr.eu/publication/if-bardella-wins-scenarios-for-a-far-right-presidency-in-france/ https://ecfr.eu/publication/making-defence-european-again/ ☛ Speakers: ★ Célia Belin, Head, ECFR Paris, Senior Policy Fellow https://ecfr.eu/profile/celia-belin/ ★ Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, Deputy Head, Warsaw Office, Policy Fellow https://ecfr.eu/profile/marta-prochwicz-jazowska/ ★ Jana Kobzová, Co-director, European Security Programme, Senior Policy Fellow https://ecfr.eu/profile/jana_kobzova/ ★ Paweł Zerka, Senior Policy Fellow https://ecfr.eu/profile/pawel_zerka/ This discussion provides a comprehensive overview of the strategic challenges faced by Europe and actionable ideas for enhancing its security sovereignty amidst a complex geopolitical environment.