OECD 81d ago

The National Strategy Playbook is the concluding output of the 2024-25 Heywood Fellowship, which set out to learn and define what a contemporary practice of national strategy-making, fit for the challenges of the next twenty years, actually is. When faced with long-term challenges requiring complex, concerted responses from the state and society, how can democracies – with election cycles, multi-level governance, shifting mandates and changes in public mood – create the capabilities and conditions needed for successful national strategy? Learning from best practice from around the world, our own history, case studies from places around the United Kingdom and the private sector, and from interviews, roundtables, seminars and events with a range of practitioners, this talk will consider what we have learned about the practice of national strategy against our current backdrop, and discuss how we answered the challenge we set ourselves by asking, constantly: how would we actually do this? Government Foresight Community (GFC) Masterclass seminars are monthly virtual seminars, open to foresight practitioners across the world, invite foresight experts to present their experiences and practices followed by Q & A. Recordings of the speaker's presentations and related materials are made available online. Learn more: https://www.oecd.org/en/networks/oecd-government-foresight-community.html Lucy Smith | https://www.linkedin.com/in/lucy-smith-b21bb7367/ #oecd #ocde #masterclass #seminar #politicalfuture #publicpolicy #nationalchallenges #strategicobjectives #futuresthinking #scenarioplanning #policyforesight The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development To learn more about the OECD, our global reach, and how to join us, go to https://www.oecd.org/about/. Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction 00:01:14 UK context & starting point 00:02:13 Origins of the problem: why long-term strategy and other dimensions to be studied 00:05:53 The approach: who and what we studied 00:07:03 The “flotilla” idea 00:09:08 3x5 framework: how to identify state capability over time 00:10:34 Sub national perspectives & UK case study 00:14:13 Developing the four design principles 00:18:02 Shaping national strategy playbook: key innovations 00:21:25 Implementation in government challenges: events 00:22:32 Implementation: vertical vs horizontal policy habits 00:23:24 Democratic vs technocratic systems 00:24:00 Misaligned policy time horizons & diverse culture barriers FAQS Q. Why do modern governments need long term strategic planning instead of short term policymaking? A: The webinar explains that major global challenges such as climate change, demographic shifts, geopolitical instability, and fiscal constraints require governments to adopt long term strategic thinking. Short-term political cycles and crisis driven decision-making are no longer sufficient for building national resilience or addressing systemic issues. Q. What is the “national strategy” framework and how does it help governments think long-term? A: Lucy Smith introduces the “3x5 framework” that they have defined to understand national strategy through three components: long term challenges, long term objectives, and big bets (the key assumptions shaping national success). This framework creates shared direction across government, business, and society, enabling coordinated long term action rather than fragmented short-term policies. Q. How can we learn from other countries to improve a nation’s strategic capability? A: By drawing on insights from Spain (2050 forecasting), the Netherlands (cyclical scenario planning), Ireland (Celtic Tiger economic strategy), and South Korea (government–business-societal coordination). These case studies show how diverse nations use forward looking tools, scenario planning, and societal alignment to achieve long-term national goals. Q. What institutional reforms does the “National Strategy Playbook” recommend for improving state capacity? A: The playbook proposes six stages: setting up strategy institutions, national diagnosis, evaluating big bets, conducting public conversation, implementing long-term policies, and evaluating strategic cycles. It emphasises transparency, long-term horizons beyond electoral cycles, and developing structures that support cross government collaboration rather than vertical silos. Q. What challenges do governments face when trying to implement long-term strategy practices? A: There are several obstacles: urgent events dominating attention, vertical departmental, misaligned policy time horizons, weak coordination between democratic and technocratic systems, and ingrained administrative cultures that resist cross government collaboration. These barriers make it difficult to embed sustained, long-term strategic thinking in everyday government practice.