Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, NUPI 70d ago

How can a direct conflict between Russia and NATO be prevented? This seminar examines the pathways that could lead to war in Europe and the measures that might reduce the risk of escalation. Even if current efforts to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to an end succeed, the risk of another war on European soil will remain unacceptably high unless Western policymakers start taking steps to prevent it. This seminar will explore several potential pathways to conflict between Russia and NATO states. It will also discuss the deterrence, confidence-building and communication measures that could prove critical in reducing the risk of escalation and avoiding another large-scale conflict between Russia and the West. The speakers’ presentations will be based on the article “Europe’s Next War: The Rising Risk of NATO-Russia Conflict” by Hiski Haukkala and Samuel Charap (RAND Corporation) in Foreign Affairs (March/April 2026). Hiski Haukkala is Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a Senior Research Associate at RAND Europe. He previously served as Secretary General and Chief of the Cabinet at the Office of the President of the Republic of Finland. Program: Welcome remarks, Kari M. Osland (NUPI) Presentation, Hiski Haukkala (FIIA) Panel discussion, Hiski Haukkala (FIIA) and Julie Wilhelmsen (NUPI) Q&A