Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, NUPI 57d ago

How has Russian public support for the war in Ukraine remained so resilient – and what dynamics are keeping it in place? The stability of Russian public opinion – the enduring expressed support for the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine – has survived mounting economic hardship, casualties, Ukrainian retaliations and even rebellion. While this evident inertia has been an important factor in the country’s war effort, its causes and broader consequences are poorly understood. Top-down explanations for quiescence and compliance – involving a combination of coercion, co-optation and propaganda – cannot satisfactorily explain these patterns in Russian opinion or behaviour. In this seminar, new survey evidence, including experimental data, will be interacted with a reinterpretation of available quantitative and qualitative research to suggest a set of interlocking horizontal dynamics that produce the politics we observe in Russia today. The speaker, Samuel Greene, will suggest that Russian citizens maintain a dangerous but durable equilibrium, keeping the war at bay while allowing it to continue in the background. These coping mechanisms – bridging psychological, cognitive and social patterns – effectively insulate both citizens and the state from the shocks and costs of the war. Research Professor Julie Wilhelmsen (NUPI) will give opening remarks, and Research Professor Helge Blakkisrud (NUPI and UiO) will moderate the event. Samuel Greene is a professor in Russian politics at King’s College London. This event is organized in collaboration between the LegitRuss and RUSSNETT research projects. More information can be found on NUPI's web page: https://www.nupi.no/en/events/2026/breakfast-seminar-legitimacy-s-labour-s-lost-the-social-and-psychological-work-of-compliance-and-consent-in-wartime-russia